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Now showing items 1 - 2 of 2

  • Evaluating the strategy of decentralized urban land-use planning in a developing region

    Yousef Sakieh   Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny   Javad Jafarnezhad   Azade Mehri   Hamidreza Kamyab   Somayeh Galdavi  

    Highlights • The strategy of decentralized urban land use planning is evaluated in a developing region in north eastern of Iran. • This strategy solves the three issues related to farmers, land developers and nature conservation agencies. • Functionality of the SLEUTH urban growth model is assessed as a land allocation tool. Abstract This study emphasizes the utility of decentralized urban planning in a developing region. The multi criteria evaluation (MCE) method was applied to produce suitability surfaces for agriculture, environmental protection and urbanization. The SLEUTH urban growth model was calibrated using two of the suitability maps: agriculture and environmental protection whereas the urbanization suitability layer was used for evaluating the results. These layers were used as weighted excluded inputs under two scenarios of agricultural land protection (AP) and environmental protection (EP). In this way ranges of resistance values against urbanization were provided for the SLEUTH model calibration. Hence, the model was forced to allocate urban clusters in locations with a minimum negative impact on farmlands and natural areas. The MCE-informed SLEUTH calibration assisted in performing decentralized urban growth allocation. Predicted under both scenarios (up to 2040) in the Gorgan township area, Iran; the major urban cores with large sizes were strictly constrained from further sprawl, instead, small scale and decentralized urban centers were established and started their own growth cycles. While substantial increase in the amount of impervious surface was allowed to occur, no meaningful negative impact was brought about on the land suitability of targeted land-uses. For both scenarios, the connectivity and compactness of urban patches were also investigated. The EP storyline yielded urban patches with more connectivity, while the AP scenario was more successful in retaining higher suitability values. The decentralized strategy can serve as a planning paradigm, which simultaneously considers several environmental parameters.
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  • Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: a case study of Ravansar County in Iran

    Hazhir Karimi   Javad Jafarnezhad   Jabbar Khaledi   Parisa Ahmadi  

    Human‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most important processes that shape the dynamics of the earth’s surface. This phenomenon, which is occurring at an astonishing rate, and its consequential environmental impacts have become an important area of research for scientists.Therefore, a wide range of methods and models have been developed to detect and predict these alterations, among which cellular automata (CA) models such as the CA‐Markov model, due to their affinity to geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), are appropriate for detailed resolution modelling and simulating dynamic spatial processes. In Iran, the district of Ravansar has undergone severe LULC changes recently, thus to take the necessary precautions, decision‐makers need to predict and determine the extent of these changes. In this study, using spatial analysis methods the LULC changes in Ravansar were investigated from 1992 to 2015. Subsequently, the CA‐Markov model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern changes of LULC until 2030. Our results indicated that from 1992 to 2015, this region has witnessed a noticeable increase in the areas of the built‐up and agricultural lands (both aquatic and non‐aquatic), resulting in the decrease of the gardens, range, and bare lands. The simulated LULC map showed that this trend will continue due to more urbanization and development of agricultural areas.
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